This project is a continuation of work that began at Animal Ethics, which is covered here. We thank them for their collaboration.

As part of an ongoing project to understand the welfare of wild animals, I analyzed age-specific survivorship as it relates to welfare, introducing a new concept for understanding the lives of wild animals: welfare expectancy. Welfare expectancy can serve as a framework for weighing up the different levels of well-being animals might experience over the course of their lives, helping to model the welfare consequences of interventions and natural pressures, such as predation, that may disproportionately affect animals of particular ages.

Wild animals’ lives are extraordinarily diverse. Individuals of different species occupy different habitats, consume different resources, and engage in different behaviors. Even within species, their fortunes vary depending on their circumstances of birth and exposure to chance events which lead to differential survival, mating success, and welfare. 

Organisms must make trade-offs between their own survival and reproduction, and the survival of their offspring. These trade-offs evolve to maximize lifetime reproductive output, which defines an individual’s fitness. However, it is crucial to recognize that fitness and welfare are not the same. For example, a strategy which maximizes the average fitness of offspring could lead to reproductive success in adulthood for a few, but short lives for most. 

In order to identify safe and tractable ways to improve wild animals' lives, welfare biology needs to identify the major threats to their welfare. In the face of the diversity of individual experiences wild animals may have, we need a way to tally them up in order to assess the overall welfare of a population. Expected value does this by taking the sum of the value of each outcome multiplied by its probability. For example, to calculate the life expectancy of a population (i.e. the expected value of lifespan), one would multiply the proportion of individuals who die at a certain age by the number of years they lived and sum this across all possible lifespans. 

In my forthcoming paper (previous version), I introduce a similar concept of “welfare expectancy” to formalize the relationship between age-specific survivorship and lifetime welfare. Consider a species for which welfare is poor in early life, but high in adulthood. If the probability of surviving early life is high, then the lifetime expected value of welfare for an individual born into that population may be high, because most individuals are going to have a chance to live out their best years in adulthood. If the probability of surviving early life is low, then most individuals will only live to experience the juvenile period of poor welfare. Conversely, in a species where welfare is higher in early life than in adulthood (e.g. due to good parental care), the net welfare of even a short-lived animal could be relatively high. 

We are profoundly uncertain about whether most animals’ lives are dominated by pleasure or suffering, or even how to go about weighing these up. Therefore, it may be prudent to concentrate on a measure of “relative welfare expectancy” (RWE), representing the normalized welfare expectancy of a population divided by its life expectancy. For a fixed life expectancy, the highest welfare expectancy is achieved by maximizing the proportion of animals living to experience the best years of life while minimizing the proportion experiencing the worst years, as illustrated in Figure 1.

As part of an investigation of age-specific mortality jointly supported by Animal Ethics and Wild Animal Initiative, I analyzed published demographic models for 152 populations of 88 species to survey patterns of age-specific mortality and used them to illustrate the implications of age-specific welfare. The vast majority of animals live very short lives; not only in absolute terms, but also relative to the longest-lived members of their species. In fact, of the populations analyzed, average lifespans were on average 16% of a species’ maximum lifespan, with only 5% of populations having life expectancies >33% of their maximum (Figure 2). Importantly, this represents an average across populations, not across individuals. Because short-lived species tend to be more populous, lives in nature are likely to be cut short far more often than these numbers suggest. Depending on how welfare varies with age in their respective species, especially short-lived individuals will be missing out on a great deal of positive and/or negative experience.

Confident application of the welfare expectancy concept will require empirical data on values of age-specific welfare, which are currently scarce for wild animal populations. A plausible working hypothesis, however, is that the average day-to-day welfare experienced by an animal of a given age is proportional to their probability of surviving that period of life. The justification for this is that the same factors which lead to mortality (e.g. disease, vulnerability to predators, competition for food) have been shown to lead to chronic stress and poor physical condition.

Although we do not know where to draw the line between net-positive and net-negative welfare for any species, under this hypothesis the probability that welfare over a given period is net positive would also be proportional to the survival probability. For example, a year in which an animal has a 60% chance of surviving might be twice as likely to be net-positive as a year which they have a 30% chance of surviving. In the absence of evidence, for the purposes of this report we decided to represent age-specific welfare exclusively as a positive number ranging from 0 to 1 (equal to the survival rate), for illustrative purposes only. Readers are free to adjust the welfare expectancy values given in Table A1 of the report according to where they feel the line between net-positive and net-negative welfare may lie for any particular species by subtracting the product of its life expectancy and the minimum annual survival rate they feel would correspond to net-positive welfare.

For an animal to have an enjoyable life on net, they must experience enough pleasure to compensate for the pain of their death. Cause of death, and therefore the duration and pain of an animal’s experience of dying, may also vary with age similarly to welfare. In a hypothetical species, juveniles might be most likely to starve while adults are most likely to be predated, with the relative probabilities of these and other mortality factors shifting over a lifetime. If the pain of death is a sufficiently strong factor to negate some of the positive welfare an animal might have experienced while alive, age-specific variation in the incidence of various manners of death and their severity would also be important to account for. (See Michael Plant and Brian Tomasik for contrasting views on this.)

At the individual level, welfare expectancy unites two distinct concepts: day-to-day quality of life and the quantity of welfare experienced over an individual’s lifetime. However, a similar quantity-quality distinction applies at the level of populations, with welfare expectancy addressing the quality side of the argument and quantity being determined by the population size. Ideally, a population should be managed in such a way that maximizes its total welfare expectancy. A predictive understanding of population ecology is therefore crucial for contextualizing information on wild animal welfare, as well as evaluating and prioritizing among interventions that differentially affect various age or stage groups. The welfare expectancy framework might serve as an early paradigm for welfare biology.